Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 3.354404 4.034203 4.794617 5.705006 6.761890 7.946654 9.371599
2025-04-06 2.386526 3.250330 4.320520 5.730399 7.523757 9.712305 12.566649
2025-04-13 1.769892 2.686441 3.925869 5.694351 8.117267 11.280151 15.672967
2025-04-20 1.465596 2.439489 3.856757 6.015737 9.155324 13.476950 19.778445
2025-04-27 1.216882 2.204067 3.739220 6.217497 10.013457 15.481585 23.789804
2025-05-04 1.050011 2.052570 3.706649 6.516290 11.017050 17.756301 28.356702
2025-05-11 0.861263 1.818506 3.493917 6.485728 11.490977 19.268399 31.909661
2025-05-18 0.682496 1.559087 3.187547 6.243599 11.578421 20.170425 34.581529
2025-05-25 0.535268 1.323756 2.878059 5.940451 11.510670 20.794346 36.835713
2025-06-01 0.449102 1.192767 2.737977 5.914942 11.902496 22.178254 40.387289
2025-06-08 0.384487 1.093165 2.640769 5.951566 12.399037 23.763998 44.368804
2025-06-15 0.327493 0.996888 2.532511 5.947793 12.812833 25.228278 48.233137
2025-06-22 0.260139 0.858160 2.310972 5.689443 12.729214 25.833440 50.712349
2025-06-29 0.220574 0.781929 2.216489 5.684780 13.139321 27.362033 54.927395
2025-07-06 0.185296 0.707105 2.110684 5.638484 13.457025 28.739365 58.960029
2025-07-13 0.172321 0.696102 2.161191 5.953259 14.552651 31.666184 66.014884
2025-07-20 0.155583 0.668092 2.162500 6.151792 15.417923 34.205619 72.498062
2025-07-27 0.144338 0.655320 2.202237 6.447332 16.519617 37.280739 80.169780
2025-08-03 0.123318 0.600741 2.115484 6.416869 16.892846 38.924240 85.189150
2025-08-10 0.099588 0.526585 1.956313 6.176917 16.762544 39.529379 88.216083
2025-08-17 0.078651 0.454134 1.785084 5.876570 16.454707 39.734855 90.451277
2025-08-24 0.067262 0.417682 1.718809 5.851292 16.797418 41.330548 95.563707
2025-08-31 0.058665 0.390343 1.676635 5.887571 17.293011 43.285479 101.514993